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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?" Event volume totals $450M across outcomes, with $11M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "Kevin Warsh" at 95.3%, with top volume on "Judy Shelton" at 3.6% and $5M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed decision in March?" Highest implied odds are for "No change" at 83.0%, with top volume on "50+ bps decrease" at 1.1% and $2M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton
$5M
Highest implied
Which coalition will form the next Dutch government? - VVD + CDA + D66
98.9%
Top priced
Which coalition will form the next Dutch government? - VVD + CDA + D66
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton leads the desk at 3.6% with $5M traded.
Lead stories
I made a mistake : The 1 big decision that Trump now regrets
I made a mistake : The 1 big decision that Trump now regrets. Trump Says Fed Chair Pick Kevin Warsh Could Drive More Than 15 % Economic Growth - IBM ( NYSE : IBM ). Trump says Fed pick Warsh can get economy to hit 15 % growth.
Sources: nj.com, benzinga.com, moneycontrol.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Thailand election winner, Senate control 2026.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $638M+1%
B3
Lead market: Fed decision in March? - 50+ bps decrease leads the desk at 1.1% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
How much power does the Fed chair really have ?
How much power does the Fed chair really have ?. How much power does the Fed chair really have ?. Trump Says Fed Chair Pick Kevin Warsh Could Drive More Than 15 % Economic Growth - IBM ( NYSE : IBM ).
Sources: npr.org, kpbs.org, benzinga.com
Commonwealth Bank Shares Surge by Most in Six Years on Profit Beat
Commonwealth Bank Shares Surge by Most in Six Years on Profit Beat. Insulated Metal Panels Market worth $17 . 13 billion by 2030 - Exclusive Report by MarketsandMarkets. Blu - ray wind - down continues - Sony ends production of recordable players.
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of February? - xAI leads the desk at 1.8% with $102K traded.
Lead stories
Googlers write open letter to company , demand transparency , protection , cut ties with ICE
Googlers write open letter to company , demand transparency , protection , cut ties with ICE.
Sources: india.com
Salesforce Employees Demand CEO Marc Benioff Cut Ties With ICE After Controversial Joke Sparks Backlash : Report - Sa....
Sources:
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 4.0% with $585K traded.
Lead stories
Latter - day Saints temple planned for Suffolk , church announces
Latter - day Saints temple planned for Suffolk , church announces. President Oaks reflects on new role , faith at BYU devotional. Vulnerable communities receive help to survive winter weather.
Sources: 13newsnow.com, kutv.com, mnnonline.org
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in February? - ↑ 95,000 leads the desk at 1.1% with $442K traded.
Lead stories
Cointelegraph : Bitcoin , Ethereum , Crypto News & Price Indexes
Cointelegraph : Bitcoin , Ethereum , Crypto News & Price Indexes. Bitcoin Just Dropped 45 %: Here What Id Do With $500 Right Now. Bitcoin Just Dropped 45 %: Here What Id Do With $500 Right Now.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, fool.com, fool.com
B7
Lead market: Spurs leads the desk at 85.0% with $298K traded.
Lead stories
Underdog promo code NYPOST : Play $5 , get $75 in fantasy bonus entries for Spurs vs . Lakers
Underdog promo code NYPOST : Play $5 , get $75 in fantasy bonus entries for Spurs vs . Lakers. Where to watch Spurs vs . Lakers today : NBA free live stream. LeBron Calls Out Laker Flaws After Thunder Loss , That a Championship Team … Were Not.
Sources: nypost.com, syracuse.com, bleacherreport.com
B8
Lead market: January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) - 1.10–1.14ºC leads the desk at 10.0% with $6K traded.
Lead stories
New York City extreme cold weather leaves 18 dead , Mamdani says
New York City extreme cold weather leaves 18 dead , Mamdani says.
Sources: bbc.co.uk
Annapolis expands renewable energy with community solar initiative
Annapolis expands renewable energy with community solar initiative. Carbon Credit Validation , Verification , and Certification Market worth $448 . 0 million in 2030. Climate Change and Energy : World Leaders in Turmoil.
Sources: wcbm.com, finanznachrichten.de,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
$9K
Next Country US Strikes - Somalia
98.8%
$149K
Why Israel ballistic missiles demand could upend US - Iran talks. Israel Netanyahu is meeting with Trump this week to push for a far broader Iran deal. US threatens to attack if Tehran doesnt accept 4 conditions.
Sources: yahoo.com, abcnews.go.com, albawaba.com
Texa GOP Senate nominee will lead the Republican ticket . Who would have the longest coattails ?
Texa GOP Senate nominee will lead the Republican ticket . Who would have the longest coattails ?. Virginia voter guide : 2 seats in General Assembly up for grabs in special election. Turning Point Action Endorsing Ken Paxton Sparks Backlash Online.
Sources: yahoo.com, wtop.com, newsweek.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton at 3.6% with $5M traded.
Top volume remains in Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton.
Event leaders
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 3.6% | $5M
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 95.3%
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Elon Musk | 1.1% | $631K
Top odds: J.D. Vance | 48.0%
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Michelle Obama | 1.2% | $473K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 28.0%
Popular events
5.6%
+0.1pp
$4M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $272M+3%
Presidential election
Event volume $277M+2%
Sources: marketscreener.com, finanznachrichten.de, afterdawn.com
Fed to hold rates through May , but Warsh may be too loose with policy , economists say
Fed to hold rates through May , but Warsh may be too loose with policy , economists say. Fed to hold rates through May , but Warsh may be too loose with policy , economists say. How to pick out a good steak - as one supermarket range gets shoutout from top chef.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, theglobeandmail.com, news.sky.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed decision in March? - 50+ bps decrease at 1.1% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed decision in March? - 50+ bps decrease.
Event leaders
Largest Company End of February?
Top volume: Apple | 4.5% | $83K
Top odds: Largest Company End of February? | 95.0%
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of February?
Top volume: ↓ $4,000 | 2.3% | $61K
Top odds: ↑ $5,500 | 31.2%
Popular events
Anthropic researcher Sharma quits , says world is in peril
Anthropic researcher Sharma quits , says world is in peril. After code red , OpenAI sees 10 % ChatGPT growth , readies new model. Elon Musk xAI Cant Stop Bleeding Cofounders.
Sources: tribuneindia.com, businesstoday.in, gizmodo.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of February? - xAI at 1.8% with $102K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of February? - xAI.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of February? - xAI
Trading at 1.8% with $102K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of February?
Top volume: xAI | 1.8% | $102K
Top odds: Anthropic | 74.8%
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Top volume: Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | 15.0% | $9K
Top odds: Super Heavy booster explodes? | 67.0%
Popular events
Oscar nominees mix and mingle at the annual Oscars Nominees Luncheon. Oscar nominees mix and mingle at the annual Oscars Nominees Luncheon. 79th Tonys Producers : Raj Kapoor , Sarah Levine Hall and Jack Sussman.
Sources: abc11.com, abc7ny.com, variety.com
Mr Beast finance bet could be the young generation Schwab , Robinhood , Tom Lee says
Mr Beast finance bet could be the young generation Schwab , Robinhood , Tom Lee says. YouTube star MrBeast buys teen money app Step. Inside The Clipping Farm Driving Fintech Marketing Boom.
Sources: coindesk.com, investmentnews.com, forbes.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 4.0% with $585K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 4.0% | $585K
Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner
Top volume: Leonardo DiCaprio | 11.0% | $30K
Top odds: Timothée Chalamet | 76.0%
# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
Top volume & odds: <60M | 97.6% | $16K
Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner
Top volume: Marty Supreme | 2.7% | $15K
Top odds: One Battle After Another | 74.0%
Oscars 2026: Best Cinematography Winner
Top volume & odds: Sinners | 50.0% | $13K
Popular events
Bitcoin ( BTC ) Price Prediction : Bitcoin Holds Key $70K Support as Cycle Signals Point to Transitional Phase. Bitcoin Just Dropped 45 %: Here What Id Do With $500 Right Now. Bitcoin Price Hovers Around $70K As Volatility Goes Quiet.
Sources: bravenewcoin.com, finance.yahoo.com, newsbtc.com
The Protocol : Robinhood unveils its layer - 2 testnet
The Protocol : Robinhood unveils its layer - 2 testnet.
Sources: coindesk.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in February? - ↑ 95,000 at 1.1% with $442K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in February? - ↑ 95,000.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in February?
Top volume: ↑ 95,000 | 1.1% | $442K
Top odds: ↑ 75,000 | 48.0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume & odds: >$1B | 53.0% | $87K
What price will Ethereum hit in February?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 1,600 | 32.5% | $85K
Popular events
Cooper Flagg scores 27 points but Mavs suffer 8th straight loss. Stats Recap : 3 Numbers from Mavs sleepy 120 - 111 loss to Suns. Suns news : Devin Booker , Jalen Green injury timetable shared by Jordan Ott.
Sources: pressherald.com, mavsmoneyball.com, clutchpoints.com
Exclusive : Rivaldo Talks Pele , Neymar And Anfield Encounter - Inside Futbol | Latest Football News , Transfer Rumou.... Dembélé stars as PSG crushes bitter rival Marseille 5 - 0 to regain top spot. Where to watch Chelsea v Leeds live stream and TV Channel Coverage.
Sources: insidefutbol.com, ibcworldnews.com, tvwise.co.uk
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Spurs | 85.0% | $298K
Top volume & odds: Suns | 86.0% | $266K
Top volume & odds: Nuggets | 64.0% | $112K
Top volume & odds: Bucks | 57.0% | $9K
Popular events
Trump plans to rescind laws to combat climate change
Trump plans to rescind laws to combat climate change. Trump plans to rescind laws to combat climate change. Burlington climate plan : Transit stuck in 1975 , advocate says.
Sources: perthnow.com.au, edenmagnet.com.au, thespec.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) - 1.10–1.14ºC at 10.0% with $6K traded.
Top volume remains in January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) - 1.10–1.14ºC.
Event leaders
January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Top volume: 1.10–1.14ºC | 10.0% | $6K
Top odds: 1.05–1.09ºC | 90.0%
Popular events
+$3,480
+$3,370
+$3,361
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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