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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
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Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?" Event volume totals $106M across outcomes, with $4M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "Kevin Warsh" at 98.0%, with top volume on "Judy Shelton" at 2.0% and $3M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?" Highest implied odds are for "3 (75 bps)" at 28.0%, with top volume on "7 (175 bps)" at 3.1% and $22K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton
$3M
Highest implied
Farmers Insurance Open Winner? - Xander Schauffele
100.0%
Most liquid
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton
$24M
Volume leaders
Liquidity watch
B1
Lead market: Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton leads the desk at 2.0% with $3M traded.
Lead stories
Trump Fed pick mocked as used car salesman by president own administration
Trump Fed pick mocked as used car salesman by president own administration. Grandpa Sundowner Confused About Sitting Senator. Trump Taps Kevin Warsh to Succeed Powell as Fed Chairman – THISDAYLIVE.
Sources: rawstory.com, crooksandliars.com, thisdaylive.com
Blast in Iran port city kills 1 , wounds 14 before Strait of Hormuz naval drill watched by US – Winnipeg Free Press. Ayatollah reemerges to celebrate Iranian Revolution anniversary while deadly explosions wallop Iran. How the Son of Iran Supreme Leader Built a Global Property Empire.
B2
Awaiting market data for California governor 2026, Trump out before 2027, Impeachment tracker, House control 2026.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $43M0%
B3
Lead market: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? - 7 (175 bps) leads the desk at 3.1% with $22K traded.
Lead stories
Trump taps ex - Fed insider Warsh to lead world top central bank
Trump taps ex - Fed insider Warsh to lead world top central bank. 3 questions about Trump nominee to lead the Fed. Trump names ex - Federal Reserve Governor as the next Fed chair.
Sources: samaa.tv, finance.yahoo.com, dailypioneer.com
JPMorgan Revises Edison International ( EIX ) Assumptions Heading Into Earnings
JPMorgan Revises Edison International ( EIX ) Assumptions Heading Into Earnings. India smartphone purchase pattern changes as iPhone 16 tops sales chart. How Micron Makes Money.
B4
Lead market: Before 2027 leads the desk at 14.0% with $37K traded.
Lead stories
SpaceX and xAI , or Tesla and SpaceX : How the merger scenario look for three of Elon Musk biggest companies. Sam Altman biggest deal of 2025 in trouble as OpenAI doomed predictions make headlines. Despite losing more AI researchers , Apple still plans two upcoming major revamps of Siri.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com, mactech.com
B5
Lead market: Grammy Award for Best New Artist? - Olivia Dean leads the desk at 82.0% with $102K traded.
Lead stories
Grammy Awards 2026 : Who will win and how to watch
Grammy Awards 2026 : Who will win and how to watch. Grammy Award biggest winners and the one record major artist hasnt achieved. Nigeria Eyes on the Grammys – THISDAYLIVE.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, mirror.co.uk, thisdaylive.com
Hundreds of Texas public school students walk out to protest ICE killings
Hundreds of Texas public school students walk out to protest ICE killings. Hundreds of Texas public school students walk out to protest ICE killings. Heartopia Has New Codes That You Can Redeem Right Now.
Sources: ,
B6
Lead market: When will Bitcoin hit $150k? - Before April 2026 leads the desk at 4.0% with $115K traded.
Lead stories
JPMorgan Just Called The Silver Price Top And Issued A Massive Gold And Bitcoin Prediction
JPMorgan Just Called The Silver Price Top And Issued A Massive Gold And Bitcoin Prediction. Better Crypto Buy : Bitcoin vs . Ethereum. Cathie Wood sends blunt message after Bitcoin crashes.
Sources: forbes.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
As Solana Price Consolidates and Bitcoin Steadies Its Course ,
As Solana Price Consolidates and Bitcoin Steadies Its Course ,. Solana DeFi platform step finance hit by $27 million treasury hack as token price craters. Is APEMARS the Top Crypto Presale for the Next 100x as Bitcoin.
B7
Lead market: Farmers Insurance Open Winner? - Justin Rose leads the desk at 93.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
After 200 Years , the Farmer Almanac Bets on A Digital Reboot and New Owner | Local
After 200 Years , the Farmer Almanac Bets on A Digital Reboot and New Owner | Local. HP minister moves privilege notice against Mandi DC over R - Day protocol violation | Chandigarh News. HP minister moves privilege notice against Mandi DC over R - Day protocol violation | India News.
Sources: wktv.com, indianexpress.com, indianexpress.com
B8
Lead market: Snow in Washington DC in Jan 2026? - Above 10.0 inches leads the desk at 2.0% with $8K traded.
Lead stories
Inches of snow expected for Asheville , Western NC on Jan . 31 . Latest updates
Inches of snow expected for Asheville , Western NC on Jan . 31 . Latest updates. How much snow has South Carolina received ? Snow accumulation tracker. Photos show bomb cyclone snow storm in Carolinas.
February forecast calls for more polar vortex mayhem
February forecast calls for more polar vortex mayhem. When is snow supposed to start in DC , MD , VA ? How much snow expected. How much snow will North Carolina get ? Snowfall accumulation tracker.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
2.0%
$14M
33.0%
$12M
68.0%
Sources: winnipegfreepress.com, nypost.com, deccanchronicle.com
Trump signs order launching Freedom250 grand prix in Washington , D . C .
Trump signs order launching Freedom250 grand prix in Washington , D . C .. Agencies cant seek US citizenship status in distributing voter registration forms , setback to Donald Trump executive.... Agencies cant seek US citizenship status in distributing voter registration forms , setback to Donald Trump executive....
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton at 2.0% with $3M traded.
Liquidity centers on Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton.
Event leaders
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 2.0% | $3M
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 98.0%
Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?
Top volume: Before February 1, 2026 | 1.0% | $554K
Top odds: Before September 1, 2026 | 53.0%
Will Trump sign an executive order this week (1/25-1/31)?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Trump sign an executive order this week (1/25-1/31)?) | 99.0% | $418K
2028 Democratic nominee for President?
Top volume: Jon Stewart | 3.0% | $195K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 33.0%
Top volume & odds: Before May 2026 | 10.0% | $131K
9.0%
0.0pp
$2M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $13M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $9M0%
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, prokerala.com, investopedia.com
Claudia Sahm : I dont have a good feeling about labor , Fed , at present
Claudia Sahm : I dont have a good feeling about labor , Fed , at present. Mainstream Expectations : Hope Vs . Potential Risk. Why Trump new pick for Fed chair hit gold and silver markets – for good reasons.
Sources: fortune.com, zerohedge.com, theconversation.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? - 7 (175 bps) at 3.1% with $22K traded.
Liquidity centers on More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024? - Up in 2025.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (US recession by end of 2026?) | 28.0% | $9K
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in February
Top volume & odds: Increase | 76.0% | $5K
Popular events
SpaceX , xAI merger sparks blunt 5 - word Palantir billionaire take
SpaceX , xAI merger sparks blunt 5 - word Palantir billionaire take. Amazon in talks to invest as much as $50 billion in OpenAI , source says. Judge signals Musk xAI may lose lawsuit accusing Altman OpenAI of stealing trade secrets.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, cnbc.com
Alibaba Qwen3 - Max - Thinking expands enterprise AI model choices – Computerworld
Alibaba Qwen3 - Max - Thinking expands enterprise AI model choices – Computerworld. Expert - level test is a head - scratcher for AI. Poetiq Raises $45 . 8M for AI Meta - System , Surpasses Top LLMs on Industry Benchmark.
Sources: computerworld.com, nature.com, prnewswire.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Before 2027 at 14.0% with $37K traded.
Liquidity centers on Before 2027.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Before 2027 | 14.0% | $37K
Top volume & odds: Gemini | 57.0% | $11K
Gemini 3 score on FrontierMath Benchmark by January 31?
Top volume & odds: 70%+ | 0.6% | $9K
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?) | 18.0% | $6K
Popular events
Exclusive | Grammy nominee Charu Suri on blending Indian ragas with jazz ; to wear ivory gown with Nehru jacket at gala. The Source |Grammy Spotlight : Tyler , The Creator 6 Nominations , Performance Take Center Stage. Why Did the Grammys Add a New Country Category ?.
Sources: hindustantimes.com, thesource.com, countryliving.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Grammy Award for Best New Artist? - Olivia Dean at 82.0% with $102K traded.
Liquidity centers on Will Stranger Things release a new episode this year? - Yes.
Event leaders
Grammy Award for Best New Artist?
Top volume & odds: Olivia Dean | 82.0% | $102K
How many launches will SpaceX have in Jan 2026?
Top volume: Above 12 | 10.0% | $101K
Top odds: Above 10 | 100.0%
Grammy Award for Album Of The Year?
Top volume & odds: DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS | 69.0% | $54K
Sources: openpr.com, coindesk.com, openpr.com
Better Investment to Make in 2026 and Beyond : Bitcoin vs . iShares Bitcoin Trust
Better Investment to Make in 2026 and Beyond : Bitcoin vs . iShares Bitcoin Trust. Better Investment to Make in 2026 and Beyond : Bitcoin vs . iShares Bitcoin Trust. Bitcoin ( BTC ) price : Fear hits a 2026 high as traders panic at $81 , 000 level.
Sources: fool.com, fool.com, coindesk.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by When will Bitcoin hit $150k? - Before April 2026 at 4.0% with $115K traded.
Liquidity centers on When will Bitcoin hit $150k? - Before June 2026.
Event leaders
Top volume: Before April 2026 | 4.0% | $115K
Top odds: Before June 2026 | 11.0%
What price will Solana hit in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 100 | 100.0% | $31K
When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?
Top volume: Before February 2026 | 1.0% | $30K
Top odds: Before July 2026 | 45.0%
How high will Ethereum get in 2026?
Top volume: Above $4,000.00 | 36.0% | $28K
Top odds: Above $3,500.00 | 52.0%
Popular events
How to Watch Djokovic vs Alcaraz Live : Australian Open 2026 Final for Free. Australian Open Final : Alcaraz vs Djokovic for History. Rafael Nadal picks favourite for Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic Australian Open final.
Sources: gizmodo.com, newkerala.com, aol.co.uk
Bridlington to host England first World Beach Pro Tour
Bridlington to host England first World Beach Pro Tour. Super Bowl Week schedule is officially set. WWE Royal Rumble 2026 live results & open thread.
Sources: yorkpress.co.uk, thebiglead.com, cagesideseats.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Farmers Insurance Open Winner? - Justin Rose at 93.0% with $1M traded.
Liquidity centers on New England.
Event leaders
Farmers Insurance Open Winner?
Top volume: Justin Rose | 93.0% | $1M
Top odds: Xander Schauffele | 100.0%
Australian Open Final: Alcaraz vs Djokovic
Top volume: Novak Djokovic | 27.0% | $899K
Top odds: Jannik Sinner | 100.0%
Pro Football Champion: Seattle vs New England
Top volume: New England | 33.0% | $891K
Top odds: Seattle | 68.0%
Shakur Stevenson vs Teofimo Lopez
Top volume: Teofimo Lopez | 27.0% | $618K
Top odds: Shakur Stevenson | 74.0%
Top volume: Diego Lopes | 43.0% | $566K
Top odds: Alex Volkanovski | 58.0%
Popular events
Kane passes Modano for most points by U . S .- born player – KTBB News , Weather , Talk
Kane passes Modano for most points by U . S .- born player – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Snow in Washington DC in Jan 2026? - Above 10.0 inches at 2.0% with $8K traded.
Liquidity centers on Snow in Washington DC in Jan 2026? - Above 10.0 inches.
Event leaders
Snow in Washington DC in Jan 2026?
Top volume: Above 10.0 inches | 2.0% | $8K
Top odds: Above 0.1 inches | 100.0%
Snow in Philadelphia in Jan 2026?
Top volume: Above 15.0 inches | 1.0% | $2K
Top odds: Above 10.0 inches | 100.0%
+$752
+$419
+$200
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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