Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Government shutdown on Jan 31, 2026?" Event volume totals $9M across outcomes, with $1M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Government shutdown on Jan 31, 2026?)" at 73.0% and $1M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed decision in Jan 2026?" Highest implied odds are for "Fed maintains rate" at 99.0%, with top volume on "Cut 25bps" at 2.0% and $834K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
$4M
Highest implied
Snow in New York City from Jan 24–26? - Above 10.0 inches
100.0%
Most liquid
$10M
Volume leaders
$4M
68.0%
$3M
33.0%
$3M
80.0%
Liquidity watch
$10M
33.0%
$10M
68.0%
B1
Lead market: Government shutdown on Jan 31, 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 73.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Where my refund ? Will a government shutdown affect tax refunds 2026 ?
Where my refund ? Will a government shutdown affect tax refunds 2026 ?. Will The Government Shutdown Again On Saturday As Trump Predicts Another Showdown With Democrats ? Here What Predicti.... Will The Government Shutdown Again On Saturday As Trump Predicts Another Showdown With Democrats ? Here What Predicti....
Sources: yahoo.com, benzinga.com, benzinga.com
B2
Daily nominee and control markets, updated with the tape.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $42M0%
B3
Lead market: Fed decision in Jan 2026? - Cut 25bps leads the desk at 2.0% with $834K traded.
Lead stories
Financial trading master Rick Rieder emerges as possible Fed chief
Financial trading master Rick Rieder emerges as possible Fed chief. Here what investors want even more than a Fed interest - rate cut this week. If BlackRock Rick Rieder Runs The Fed , Here How Policy Could Change Fast.
Sources: freemalaysiatoday.com, finance.yahoo.com, forbes.com
B4
Lead market: Best AI in Jan 2026? - ChatGPT leads the desk at 1.0% with $75K traded.
Lead stories
Microsoft launches Maia 200 AI chip to rival Nvidia in cloud computing
Microsoft launches Maia 200 AI chip to rival Nvidia in cloud computing. Microsoft rolls out next generation of its AI chips , takes aim at Nvidia software. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Calls Anthropic Claude Incredible , Says Every Software Company Needs To Use It.
Sources: thehindubusinessline.com, moneycontrol.com, finance.yahoo.com
B5
Lead market: Who will attend the Big Game? - Donald Trump leads the desk at 7.0% with $124K traded.
Lead stories
What to know about Super Bowl 60 : Patriots - Seahawks history , halftime show and more
What to know about Super Bowl 60 : Patriots - Seahawks history , halftime show and more. Inside Super Bowl week concerts , parties and celebrity scene heading into big game. President Trump To Skip Super Bowl , Slams Halftime Show With Bad Bunny , Green Day.
Sources: nytimes.com, ap.org, zerohedge.com
B6
Lead market: How high will Bitcoin get in January? - Above $100,000.00 leads the desk at 4.0% with $58K traded.
Lead stories
AI adoption drives shift toward efficiency and earnings
AI adoption drives shift toward efficiency and earnings. Bitcoin Price Prediction : Analyst Forecasts 72 . 86 % Crash To $30 , 000. Over 70 % of Institutional Investors Say Bitcoin Undervalued.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, newsbtc.com, cointelegraph.com
Rich Dad Poor Dad author confesses selling gold and silver
Rich Dad Poor Dad author confesses selling gold and silver. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Hits 12 - month Low as Trader Sees Further Drop. Bitcoin price slumps after investors fast cash out of ETFs to avoid risk.
B7
Lead market: Seattle leads the desk at 68.0% with $4M traded.
Lead stories
What to know about Super Bowl 60 : Patriots - Seahawks history , halftime show and more
What to know about Super Bowl 60 : Patriots - Seahawks history , halftime show and more. Shedeur Sanders Named To Pro Bowl As Replacement. Shedeur Sanders Named To Pro Bowl As Replacement.
Sources: nytimes.com, kfan.iheart.com, 620kmns.iheart.com
Orlando Magic falter at home again , head back on road
Orlando Magic falter at home again , head back on road. DraftKings NBA Promos : Secure a $300 Bonus for Magic vs . Cavaliers on Monday. Cavaliers vs . Magic Time , TV & Stream – Jan . 26.
B8
Lead market: Snow in New York City from Jan 24–26? - Above 12.0 inches leads the desk at 1.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
How much snow has Massachusetts gotten so far ? What we know Monday
How much snow has Massachusetts gotten so far ? What we know Monday. How much snow fell in Indiana this weekend ? See snow totals. How much snow fell in Indiana this weekend ? See snow totals.
Scenes from a . m . commute : Icy roads , transit delays as Staten Island digs out from snow storm
Scenes from a . m . commute : Icy roads , transit delays as Staten Island digs out from snow storm. Photos : Snow blankets Massachusetts as winter storm plows through the U . S .. 5 die in heavy snow ; JMA warns of continued risks | The Asahi Shimbun : Breaking News , Japan News and Analysis.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
$9M
3.0%
Trump Administration Far Better For Crypto Than Joe Biden Or Kamala Harris , Says Anthony Scaramucci : Got To Give Cr.... January Fed Meeting : Live Updates and Commentary. How many rate cuts in 2026 ? These mounting pressures will put the Fed at a crossroads this year.
Sources: benzinga.com, kiplinger.com, finance.yahoo.com
Netanyahu : Iran attack on Israel would be one mistake too many ; Hezbollah chief : w
Netanyahu : Iran attack on Israel would be one mistake too many ; Hezbollah chief : w. Iranians are furious with Trump : He betrayed us. EA on WION : After Deadly Repression of Protests , Iran Regime is Nervous.
Sources: ynetnews.com, israelnationalnews.com, eaworldview.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Government shutdown on Jan 31, 2026? - Yes at 73.0% with $1M traded.
Liquidity centers on Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton.
Event leaders
Government shutdown on Jan 31, 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Government shutdown on Jan 31, 2026?) | 73.0% | $1M
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 3.0% | $380K
Top odds: Rick Rieder | 47.0%
Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?
Top volume: Before February 1, 2026 | 4.0% | $303K
Top odds: Before September 1, 2026 | 49.0%
Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?
Top volume & odds: Kristi Noem | 42.0% | $85K
Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota?
Top volume: Before February | 1.0% | $65K
Top odds: Before 2027 | 21.0%
Popular events
7.0%
0.0pp
$2M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $13M+8%
Presidential election
Event volume $9M0%
Dollar pressure mounts as traders game out US plans for yen. Democrat Schumer threatens a partial government shutdown ; USD / JPY extends below 154 on double intervention risks -.... Futures Rebound From Session Low Amid FX Mayhem As Earning Avalanche , Govt Shutdown Loom.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, zerohedge.com, zerohedge.com
How many rate cuts in 2026 ? These mounting pressures will put the Fed at a crossroads this year
How many rate cuts in 2026 ? These mounting pressures will put the Fed at a crossroads this year. How many rate cuts in 2026 ? These mounting pressures will put the Fed at a crossroads this year. How Many Rate Cuts In 2026 ? Mounting Pressure Puts the Fed at a Crossroads.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, bankrate.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed decision in Jan 2026? - Cut 25bps at 2.0% with $834K traded.
Liquidity centers on Fed decision in Jan 2026? - Cut 25bps.
Event leaders
Fed funds rate after Jan 2026 meeting?
Top volume: Above 3.75% | 2.0% | $33K
Top odds: Above 3.50% | 100.0%
Gas prices in the US in Jan 2026?
Top volume: Above $2.85 | 99.0% | $25K
Top odds: Above $2.80 | 100.0%
Popular events
Nvidia invests $2 billion more in CoreWeave , offers new chip. Microsoft latest AI chip to reduce reliance on Nvidia. On theCUBE Pod : BitGo IPO and takeaways from Davos.
Singapore users are flocking to Elon Musk Grok despite deepfake controversy
Singapore users are flocking to Elon Musk Grok despite deepfake controversy.
Sources: straitstimes.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Best AI in Jan 2026? - ChatGPT at 1.0% with $75K traded.
Liquidity centers on What will be the top AI model in Jan 2026? - gpt-5.2.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Before 2027 | 13.0% | $50K
What will be the top AI model in Jan 2026?
Top volume: gpt-5.2 | 1.0% | $39K
Top odds: gemini-3-pro | 98.0%
Which Companies will officially announce an IPO before 2027?
Top volume & odds: OpenAI | 32.0% | $3K
Popular events
Best AI in Jan 2026? - ChatGPT
Vol $75K
Vol $50K
Sinner makes history , setting Oscars nomination record. 3 things to look for in the 2026 BAFTA nominations. Natalie Portman blasts the Oscars for snubbing female directors yet again as she laments barriers at every level.
Sources: ap.org, goldderby.com, dailymail.co.uk
Trump says administration is reviewing everything about Minneapolis shooting
Trump says administration is reviewing everything about Minneapolis shooting. Kristi Noem Chances of Being Ousted From Trump Admin Spike After Alex Pretti Killing. Trump coy on defending Kristi Noem and federal agents after Alex Pretti shooting.
Sources: timeslive.co.za, ibtimes.com, independent.co.uk
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Who will attend the Big Game? - Donald Trump at 7.0% with $124K traded.
Liquidity centers on Oscar for Best Picture? - Sinners.
Event leaders
Who will leave their role in the Trump Administration in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Greg Bovino | 85.0% | $66K
Grammy Award for Song Of The Year?
Top volume & odds: Golden [From "KPop Demon Hunters"] | 70.0% | $31K
Popular events
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, cointelegraph.com, finance.yahoo.com
Why MicroStrategy Latest Bitcoin Purchase Is Deeply Concerning
Why MicroStrategy Latest Bitcoin Purchase Is Deeply Concerning. Bitcoin ( BTC ) Price Prediction : $112K in Focus if Flag Breakout Holds Above Key Resistance. Strategy Buys 2 , 932 Bitcoin For $264M , But MSTR Stock Tests Critical $160 Support - Strategy ( NASDAQ : MSTR ).
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, bravenewcoin.com, benzinga.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by How high will Bitcoin get in January? - Above $100,000.00 at 4.0% with $58K traded.
Liquidity centers on When will Bitcoin hit $150k? - Before February 2026.
Lead event
How high will Bitcoin get in January? - Above $100,000.00
Trading at 4.0% with $58K in volume.
Event leaders
How high will Bitcoin get in January?
Top volume & odds: Above $100,000.00 | 4.0% | $58K
Top volume & odds: Before June 2026 | 11.0% | $49K
Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?
Top volume & odds: Above $200000 | 14.0% | $43K
How high will Bitcoin get in 2026?
Top volume: Above $199999.99 | 13.0% | $42K
Top odds: Above $99999.99 | 77.0%
When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?
Top volume: Before February 2026 | 5.0% | $41K
Top odds: Before July 2026 | 65.0%
Sources: orlandosentinel.com, covers.com, 969thegame.iheart.com
Amtrak Just Had a Record Year Here What That Means for the Future of Train Travel in the U . S .
Amtrak Just Had a Record Year Here What That Means for the Future of Train Travel in the U . S .. Denver Broncos NFL draft order 2026 : First - round position set after playoff elimination. Panthers score four in third to rout Blackhawks , extend road win streak to four.
Sources: travelandleisure.com, milehighreport.com, sun-sentinel.com
Event leaders
Pro Football Champion: Seattle vs New England
Top volume & odds: Seattle | 68.0% | $4M
Top volume & odds: Cleveland | 80.0% | $3M
Top volume & odds: Los Angeles L | 72.0% | $2M
Top volume & odds: Duke | 100.0% | $2M
Popular events
Sources: silive.com, wbur.org, asahi.com
Shoveling snow ? Over - exertion and cold temps can raise your heart risks
Shoveling snow ? Over - exertion and cold temps can raise your heart risks. Shoveling snow ? Over - exertion and cold temps can raise your heart risks. Shoveling snow ? Over - exertion and cold temps can raise your heart risks.
Sources: baltimoresun.com, ocregister.com, bostonherald.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Snow in New York City from Jan 24–26? - Above 12.0 inches at 1.0% with $1M traded.
Liquidity centers on Snow in New York City from Jan 24–26? - Above 12.0 inches.
Lead event
Snow in New York City from Jan 24–26? - Above 12.0 inches
Trading at 1.0% with $1M in volume.
Event leaders
Snow in New York City from Jan 24–26?
Top volume: Above 12.0 inches | 1.0% | $1M
Top odds: Above 10.0 inches | 100.0%
Snow in New York City in Jan 2026?
Top volume: Above 15.0 inches | 24.0% | $116K
Top odds: Above 10.0 inches | 100.0%
Snow in Washington DC in Jan 2026?
Top volume: Above 15.0 inches | 8.0% | $65K
Top odds: Above 6.0 inches | 100.0%
Top volume & odds: Above 2.0 inches | 100.0% | $38K
Snow in Philadelphia in Jan 2026?
Top volume: Above 15.0 inches | 19.0% | $35K
Top odds: Above 10.0 inches | 100.0%
+$6,979
+$4,146
+$3,955
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard