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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Government shutdown on Jan 31, 2026?" Event volume totals $7M across outcomes, with $2M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Shut down" at 76.0% and $2M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed decision in Jan 2026?" Highest implied odds are for "Fed maintains rate" at 99.0%, with top volume on "Cut 25bps" at 2.0% and $838K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
$3M
Highest implied
Oscar for Best Picture? - Wicked: For Good
100.0%
Most liquid
Pro Football Champion? - San Francisco
$8M
Volume leaders
$3M
83.0%
Government shutdown on Jan 31, 2026? - Shut down
$2M
76.0%
$2M
17.0%
Liquidity watch
B1
Lead market: Government shutdown on Jan 31, 2026? - Shut down leads the desk at 76.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Second Minnesota shooting by ICE raises chances of a partial government shutdown
Second Minnesota shooting by ICE raises chances of a partial government shutdown. Snowstorms in Washington could derail Senate schedule , raising stakes of partial shutdown. From Washington : Arctic Sovereignty and the Davos Standoff.
Sources: yahoo.com, ksl.com, radio.foxnews.com
Seaham veteran demands massive apology from Trump
Seaham veteran demands massive apology from Trump. Could Fed Chair Powell Successor Be ... Jerome Powell ?. New Fed Chair Pick Expected In Days.
B2
Awaiting market data for Impeachment tracker, Portugal president.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $42M0%
B3
Lead market: Fed decision in Jan 2026? - Cut 25bps leads the desk at 2.0% with $838K traded.
Lead stories
Weekly Mortgage Rates Remain Near 6 % As Inflation Heats Up
Weekly Mortgage Rates Remain Near 6 % As Inflation Heats Up. Supreme Court may leave big questions unresolved on Trump bid to fire Fed Lisa Cook. 5 Stocks Worth Watching on Their Fresh Dividend Hikes.
Sources: insurancenewsnet.com, marketscreener.com, finance.yahoo.com
Here how much Rocky Mountain region gas prices rose from last week
Here how much Rocky Mountain region gas prices rose from last week. Chaos breaks out in war zone Minneapolis. Here how much gas prices rose from last week.
B4
Lead market: What will be the top AI model in Jan 2026? - gpt-5.2 leads the desk at 1.0% with $85K traded.
Lead stories
Singapore users are flocking to Elon Musk Grok despite deepfake controversy
Singapore users are flocking to Elon Musk Grok despite deepfake controversy. Fausto Tantillo Bags Second Chip Lead of Series on Main Event Day 1a.
Sources: straitstimes.com, pokernews.com
Latest ChatGPT model uses Elon Musk Grokipedia as source , tests reveal | Grok AI
Latest ChatGPT model uses Elon Musk Grokipedia as source , tests reveal | Grok AI. The Surprising Reason Nvidia Looks Recession - Proof in 2026. Google , OpenAI , and Anthropic are competing to see whose AI can play Pokémon the best Twitch streams of beloved RPG....
B5
Lead market: Oscar for Best Picture? - Sinners leads the desk at 23.0% with $44K traded.
Lead stories
Where to watch and stream the 2026 Oscar - nominated movies
Where to watch and stream the 2026 Oscar - nominated movies. Precursors deep dive : This year best ( and worst ) Oscar predictors. Oscar Nominations 2026 : Sinners dominates with record - breaking 16 nods , see the full list.
Sources: ew.com, goldderby.com, gqindia.com
Kylie Jenner & Timothee Chalamet Spotted Flying Off in Private Jet Amid His Latest Oscar Nomination
Kylie Jenner & Timothee Chalamet Spotted Flying Off in Private Jet Amid His Latest Oscar Nomination. Let Me Step My Stuff Up : How Delroy Lindo Inspired Michael B . Jordan To Up His Game On Sinners. Deadline.
B6
Lead market: When will Bitcoin hit $150k? - Before March 2026 leads the desk at 3.0% with $35K traded.
Lead stories
The $6B Bitcoin Gap : Why New Institutional Whales Now Move BTC
The $6B Bitcoin Gap : Why New Institutional Whales Now Move BTC. Bitcoin weakness versus gold and equities puts quantum computing fears back in focus. Myriad Moves : Bitcoin Bearishness Grows as Gold Gets Closer to Beating Ethereum to $5K.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, coindesk.com, finance.yahoo.com
17 , 000 Bitcoin Hit Exchanges Is a Deeper BTC Pullback to $80 , 000 Coming ?
17 , 000 Bitcoin Hit Exchanges Is a Deeper BTC Pullback to $80 , 000 Coming ?. CZ Predicts Bitcoin Super - Cycle in 2026 , Breaking Historic Pattern. Bitcoin Price Still Has Room To Fall Below $60K Crypto CEO.
B7
Lead market: Cleveland leads the desk at 83.0% with $3M traded.
Lead stories
Magic vs . Cavaliers Time , TV & Stream – Jan . 24
Magic vs . Cavaliers Time , TV & Stream – Jan . 24. Magic vs . Cavaliers Time , TV & Stream – Jan . 24 | Fox Sports 1340 WNCO. Magic vs . Cavaliers Time , TV & Stream – Jan . 24 | Fox Sports 980 WONE.
Sources: 969thegame.iheart.com, wncoam.iheart.com, wone.iheart.com
The Largest U . S . Running Races of 2025
The Largest U . S . Running Races of 2025. Payton Pritchard scores 32 , Celtics beat Nets in 2 OTs. Payton Pritchard scores 32 , Celtics beat Nets in 2 OTs.
Sources:
B8
Lead market: Snow in New York City from Jan 24–26? - Above 12.0 inches leads the desk at 46.0% with $190K traded.
Lead stories
The January 2026 U . S . Winter Storm , in Maps and Charts
The January 2026 U . S . Winter Storm , in Maps and Charts. NYC snowstorm approaches : Latest weather maps show odds of potential snow totals. Winter storm approaching Erie area . See new snowfall , temp forecasts.
Sources: nytimes.com, silive.com, yahoo.com
Flurries hitting central Kansas and major winter storm nears : LIVE
Flurries hitting central Kansas and major winter storm nears : LIVE. Do I need to clear snow from my car before driving ? What Ohio law says. Boston parking ban Sunday : What to know about snow emergency.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
$8M
2.0%
Sources: bbc.co.uk, investopedia.com, forbes.com
Khamenei transfers daily duties , moves to underground shelter after officials warn of US strike
Khamenei transfers daily duties , moves to underground shelter after officials warn of US strike. Report : Khamenei Moved To Underground Bunker In Tehran. Svi komentari - It is known where the Iranian Supreme Leader , Ayatollah Ali Hamnei , is hiding.
Sources: yahoo.com, i24news.tv, b92.net
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Government shutdown on Jan 31, 2026? - Shut down at 76.0% with $2M traded.
Liquidity centers on Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton.
Event leaders
Government shutdown on Jan 31, 2026?
Top volume & odds: Shut down | 76.0% | $2M
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Top volume & odds: Rick Rieder | 50.0% | $398K
Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?
Top volume: Before February 1, 2026 | 7.0% | $323K
Top odds: Before September 1, 2026 | 50.0%
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
Top volume: Before February 2026 | 14.0% | $107K
Top odds: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 70.0%
Democratic nominee for President in 2028?
Top volume: Jon Stewart | 2.0% | $74K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 34.0%
7.0%
-1.0pp
$2M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $12M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $9M0%
Sources: yahoo.com, washingtonexaminer.com, yahoo.com
India tax - to - GDP ratio aligns with major economies as reforms lift revenue : Report
India tax - to - GDP ratio aligns with major economies as reforms lift revenue : Report. India tax - to - GDP ratio mirrors major economies as structural reforms drive revenue convergence : Report. COMMENT : Beyond GDP : Why people economy matters.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, aninews.in, theborneopost.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed decision in Jan 2026? - Cut 25bps at 2.0% with $838K traded.
Liquidity centers on Fed decision in Jan 2026? - Cut 25bps.
Event leaders
Gas prices in the US in Jan 2026?
Top volume: Above $2.80 | 99.0% | $31K
Top odds: Above $2.75 | 100.0%
Top volume & odds: 2.1 to 2.5 | 82.0% | $16K
More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024?
Top volume & odds: Up in 2025 | 98.0% | $8K
Popular events
Sources: theguardian.com, fool.com, tomshardware.com
Davos Dispatch : OpenAI and Anthropic Pivot to Enterprise Goldmines
Davos Dispatch : OpenAI and Anthropic Pivot to Enterprise Goldmines. OpenAI Zoph Revival : Betting Big on Enterprise to Counter AI Rivals. Should You Buy Alphabet Stock Before Feb . 4 ?.
Sources: webpronews.com, webpronews.com, fool.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by What will be the top AI model in Jan 2026? - gpt-5.2 at 1.0% with $85K traded.
Liquidity centers on Before 2027.
Event leaders
What will be the top AI model in Jan 2026?
Top volume: gpt-5.2 | 1.0% | $85K
Top odds: gemini-3-pro | 99.0%
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Before 2027 | 16.0% | $29K
Which brands will advertise during the Big Game 2026?
Top volume & odds: OpenAI | 95.0% | $2K
Popular events
Vol $29K
Best AI in Jan 2026? - ChatGPT
Vol $26K
Sources: justjared.com, cinemablend.com, deadline.com
Angelina Jolie $342M Action Sequel Could Happen On 1 Condition
Angelina Jolie $342M Action Sequel Could Happen On 1 Condition. Chris Pratt Critically Panned Sci - Fi Flop Delivers the Worst Box Office Debut of His Career. Avatar : Fire & Ash Will Finally Have Its No . 1 Streak Ended by Panned $60M Dystopian Thriller.
Sources: screenrant.com, collider.com, movieweb.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Oscar for Best Picture? - Sinners at 23.0% with $44K traded.
Liquidity centers on Oscar for Best Picture? - Marty Supreme.
Event leaders
Grammy Award for Song Of The Year?
Top volume: Grammy Award for Song Of The Year? | 5.0% | $23K
Top odds: Golden [From "KPop Demon Hunters"] | 69.0%
Will Stranger Things release a new episode this year?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Stranger Things release a new episode this year?) | 17.0% | $19K
Popular events
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, newsbtc.com
Binance Research : Crypto crosses $ 4 t in 2025
Binance Research : Crypto crosses $ 4 t in 2025. BIP - 110 Temporary Soft Fork Adopted by Over 2 % of Bitcoin Nodes. How Wall Street took over the bitcoin options market.
Sources: ft.lk, cointelegraph.com, coindesk.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by When will Bitcoin hit $150k? - Before March 2026 at 3.0% with $35K traded.
Liquidity centers on When will Bitcoin hit $150k? - Before February 2026.
Event leaders
Top volume: Before March 2026 | 3.0% | $35K
Top odds: Before June 2026 | 12.0%
Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?
Top volume & odds: Above $200000 | 14.0% | $32K
How high will Bitcoin get in January?
Top volume & odds: Above $100,000.00 | 6.0% | $23K
How high will Bitcoin get in 2026?
Top volume: Above $199999.99 | 12.0% | $11K
Top odds: Above $99999.99 | 81.0%
When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?
Top volume: Before April 2026 | 50.0% | $6K
Top odds: Before July 2026 | 70.0%
Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Lakers LIVE Score Updates in NBA Game | 01 / 24 / 2026
Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Lakers LIVE Score Updates in NBA Game | 01 / 24 / 2026. Lakers vs . Mavericks Predictions , Odds & Stats – Jan . 24. Lakers vs . Mavericks Injury Report – Jan . 24.
Sources: vavel.com, am1300thezone.iheart.com, am1300thezone.iheart.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Cleveland at 83.0% with $3M traded.
Liquidity centers on Pro Football Champion? - San Francisco.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Cleveland | 83.0% | $3M
Top volume & odds: Los Angeles L | 69.0% | $1M
Top volume & odds: Scottie Scheffler | 44.0% | $1M
Top volume & odds: New England | 67.0% | $997K
Popular events
Sources: yahoo.com, yahoo.com, masslive.com
Heavy snow continues to fall on Sea of Japan coast ; three people confirmed dead and another 12 reported injured. If you lose power , here what you need to do during the winter storm. Winter Storm Warning issued for much of Indiana | Weather Impact Alert Updates.
Sources: thestar.com.my, yahoo.com, wthr.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Snow in New York City from Jan 24–26? - Above 12.0 inches at 46.0% with $190K traded.
Liquidity centers on Snow in New York City from Jan 24–26? - Above 12.0 inches.
Lead event
Snow in New York City from Jan 24–26? - Above 12.0 inches
Trading at 46.0% with $190K in volume.
Event leaders
Snow in New York City from Jan 24–26?
Top volume: Above 12.0 inches | 46.0% | $190K
Top odds: Above 2.0 inches | 99.0%
Snow in New York City in Jan 2026?
Top volume: Above 15.0 inches | 36.0% | $105K
Top odds: Above 3.0 inches | 99.0%
Snow in Washington DC in Jan 2026?
Top volume: Above 10.0 inches | 45.0% | $60K
Top odds: Above 0.1 inches | 100.0%
Top volume: Above 2.0 inches | 68.0% | $24K
Top odds: Above 0.1 inches | 98.0%
Snow in Philadelphia in Jan 2026?
Top volume: Above 10.0 inches | 66.0% | $24K
Top odds: Above 3.0 inches | 99.0%
+$6,979
+$4,146
+$3,955
Kalshi via Jupiter
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