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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $20M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 8.7% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?)" at 26.0% and $1M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
98.9%
Top priced
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
98.9%
$222K
B1
Lead market: Peru Presidential Election Winner - Rafael López Aliaga leads the desk at 18.0% with $3M traded.
Lead stories
Peru faces a presidential runoff as election count drags on after ballot delays
Peru faces a presidential runoff as election count drags on after ballot delays. Allies of disgraced former presidents lead in Peru presidential election. Peru vote count reaches 90 %, second place still tied.
Sources: smdailyjournal.com, sitkasentinel.com, news.az
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes leads the desk at 26.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
FACT CHECK : PH vessels pass through Strait of Hormuz , contrary to claim
FACT CHECK : PH vessels pass through Strait of Hormuz , contrary to claim. Chinese tanker retreat from the Strait of Hormuz shows how Trump blockade is working. Im opening Strait of Hormuz for China , insists Trump as he says President Xi will give me a big , fat , hug.
Sources: rappler.com, nypost.com, lbc.co.uk
B4
Lead market: AI bubble burst by...? - December 31, 2026 leads the desk at 6.6% with $117K traded.
Lead stories
AI Could Democratize One of Tech Most Valuable Resources
AI Could Democratize One of Tech Most Valuable Resources. AI Companies To Play Bigger Role in CVE Program , Says CISA. OpenAI introduces GPT 5 . 4 Cyber , an AI model built for cybersecurity defence : All details.
Sources: wired.com, infosecurity-magazine.com, digit.in
OpenAI launches GPT 5 . 4 Cyber to boost AI powered cybersecurity , eyes lead over Claude Mythos
OpenAI launches GPT 5 . 4 Cyber to boost AI powered cybersecurity , eyes lead over Claude Mythos. Microsoft is working on yet another OpenClaw - like agent. AI - boosted hacks with Anthropic Mythos could have dire consequences for banks.
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $377K traded.
Lead stories
Joy Behar claims Jesus never claimed to be Messiah
Joy Behar claims Jesus never claimed to be Messiah. Pete Ricketts on Trump AI image : There is only one Jesus Christ. Trump posts yet another AI - generated post of Jesus after previous controversy.
Sources: christianpost.com, 1011now.com, thegrio.com
Tom Cruise Digger Wont Make Mission : Impossible 8 & Joker 2 Deadly Mistake
Tom Cruise Digger Wont Make Mission : Impossible 8 & Joker 2 Deadly Mistake. Mid - Budget Thriller Featuring Two Harry Potter Stars Surges on HBO Max. Miss Universe Pakistan 2025 set to attend Cannes Film Festival : Here what to know.
B6
Lead market: MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$1B leads the desk at 49.0% with $59K traded.
Lead stories
The Perp Dex That Processed $360 Billion Just Went Live on Crypto Most Experimental Blockchain
The Perp Dex That Processed $360 Billion Just Went Live on Crypto Most Experimental Blockchain.
Sources: benzinga.com
Bitcoin Price Has Not Reached Its Real Bottom , And A Big Storm Is Coming
Bitcoin Price Has Not Reached Its Real Bottom , And A Big Storm Is Coming. Dont Celebrate Bitcoin Price Above $70 , 000 , Analyst Says It Very , Very Bad. Bitcoin Stalls at $76K As Profit - Taking Hit 63K BTC.
Sources: newsbtc.com, ,
B7
Lead market: Warriors leads the desk at 36.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Clippers LIVE Score Updates in NBA Play - In Game | 04 / 15 / 2026. Three non - Steph Curry keys to Warriors beating Clippers – NBC Bay Area. OKC Thunder Playoff Schedule : Dates , Times , Opponents , TV Channel.
Sources: vavel.com, nbcbayarea.com, si.com
PSG Dominate Liverpool to Reach UCL Semis , Eye Historic Title Defence
PSG Dominate Liverpool to Reach UCL Semis , Eye Historic Title Defence. Arsenal , Bayern Munich seal Champions League semi - final spots. Lookman seals Champions League SF berth for Atleti.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k leads the desk at 10.0% with $823 traded.
Lead stories
biBerk Business Insurance Offers Key Insights on How Sustainability in Business Helps the Environment Including Tips.... biBerk Business Insurance Offers Key Insights on How Sustainability in Business Helps the Environment Including Tips.... biBerk Business Insurance Offers Key Insights on How Sustainability in Business Helps the Environment Including Tips....
Sources: bostonstar.com, memphissun.com,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.7%
$1M
US Iran war news live : Second US - sanctioned supertanker enters Gulf via Hormuz despite blockade.
Sources: moneycontrol.com
Did China Sell Iran the Spy Satellite It Used Against U . S . Bases ?
Did China Sell Iran the Spy Satellite It Used Against U . S . Bases ?. Iranian authorities dismantle terror group linked to Mossad , Zionist media. Iranian authorities dismantle terror group linked to Mossad , Zionist media.
Sources: pjmedia.com, jpost.com, jpost.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Peru Presidential Election Winner - Rafael López Aliaga at 18.0% with $3M traded.
Top volume remains in Peru Presidential Election Winner - Rafael López Aliaga.
Lead event
Peru Presidential Election Winner - Rafael López Aliaga
Trading at 18.0% with $3M in volume.
Event leaders
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Top volume: Rafael López Aliaga | 18.0% | $3M
Top odds: Keiko Fujimori | 65.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?) | 1.7% | $2M
Next Prime Minister of Hungary
Top volume & odds: Péter Magyar | 98.7% | $1M
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 31.0% | $1M
7.6%
+1.4pp
$10M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $557M+1%
Presidential election
Event volume $528M+1%
Prosecutors sought access to Federal Reserve building as Trump threatens to fire Powell. Trump Says He Will Have to Fire Jerome Powell If He Stays at the Fed After His Term Expires. Trump threatens to fire Powell if the Fed Chair decides to stay on after his term ends next month.
Sources: latimes.com, ibtimes.com, news4jax.com
Oil prices fall for 2nd day as Donald Trump signals possible US - Iran talks
Oil prices fall for 2nd day as Donald Trump signals possible US - Iran talks. Oil prices fall for 2nd day as Donald Trump signals possible US - Iran talks. Goldman Oil Guru Sees Mixed New For Prices : Slowing Draws Vs Rising Flows.
Sources: prokerala.com, ibtimes.co.in, zerohedge.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes at 26.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes
Trading at 26.0% with $1M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 26.0% | $1M
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume & odds: Kevin Warsh | 94.2% | $702K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↓ $85 | 78.0% | $333K
Top volume & odds: Largest Company end of April? | 98.9% | $222K
Sources: businesstoday.in, businessghana.com, bworldonline.com
Anthropic $800 Billion Buzz Threatens To Dethrone OpenAI
Anthropic $800 Billion Buzz Threatens To Dethrone OpenAI. US AI megadeals drive global VC to USD $331 billion. FinancialContent - Bank of America ( BAC ) 2026 : Navigating Deregulation , AI Integration , and the Buffett Exit.
Sources: benzinga.com, itbrief.co.nz, markets.financialcontent.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by AI bubble burst by...? - December 31, 2026 at 6.6% with $117K traded.
Top volume remains in AI bubble burst by...? - December 31, 2026.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 6.6% | $117K
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume: OpenAI | 4.0% | $37K
Top odds: Anthropic | 94.0%
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $SEX | 2.0% | $25K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 60.5%
Popular events
Sources: comingsoon.net, aceshowbiz.com, tribune.com.pk
Eurovision Your Decision ( 2026 ) returns to Royal Vauxhall Tavern , 6 - 16 May 2026
Eurovision Your Decision ( 2026 ) returns to Royal Vauxhall Tavern , 6 - 16 May 2026. Airdate : Eurovision Song Contest 2026. Episode 20 – ( November 18 , 2025 ) – TDoR & Trans Awareness Week.
Sources: qxmagazine.com, tvtonight.com.au, joy.org.au
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 3.9% with $377K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $377K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 18.0% | $190K
Top volume & odds: Cooper Flagg | 63.4% | $89K
Popular events
Kraken Boss Hints IPO Plan Still On Despite Reports of Pause
Kraken Boss Hints IPO Plan Still On Despite Reports of Pause. Crypto Exchange Kraken Prepares for IPO. Kraken IPO still on table despite valuation cut and market pause , co - CEO says.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, pymnts.com, proactiveinvestors.co.uk
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$1B at 49.0% with $59K traded.
Top volume remains in MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$1B.
Lead event
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$1B
Trading at 49.0% with $59K in volume.
Event leaders
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume: >$1B | 49.0% | $59K
Top odds: >$600M | 78.0%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 71.0% | $51K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 8.4% | $46K
Popular events
Sources: dailypioneer.com, premiumtimesng.com, prokerala.com
F1 boss responds to Max Verstappen criticism of 2026 rules : His voice has to be listened to
F1 boss responds to Max Verstappen criticism of 2026 rules : His voice has to be listened to. EXCLUSIVE : F1 ACADEMY champion Doriane Pin on learning a lot in new Mercedes role and working towards her F1 goal. The Rally1 rookie proving he belongs in the WRC top flight.
Sources: motorsport.com, formula1.com, motorsport.com
Event leaders
Top volume: Atletico Madrid | 11.4% | $1M
Top odds: Bayern Munich | 34.0%
Top volume & odds: Kylian Mbappe | 61.0% | $254
Popular events
Why Solar Powers the Renewable Boom : Solar Wind Benefits , Emission Cuts & Green Transition
Why Solar Powers the Renewable Boom : Solar Wind Benefits , Emission Cuts & Green Transition. Sappi Recognized with Climate Performance Award from ClimateWork Maine. Democrats vying for Wisconsin governor sound off on data centers , climate accountability during forum.
Sources: natureworldnews.com, paperage.com, wpr.org
Democrats Vying for WI Governor Take on Data Centers , Climate Change
Democrats Vying for WI Governor Take on Data Centers , Climate Change. Brazil Renewable Energy 2026 : Wind , Solar & H2. As energy costs rise , some states back off ambitious climate goals.
Sources: urbanmilwaukee.com, riotimesonline.com, sandiegouniontribune.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k at 10.0% with $823 traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$13,468
+$7,620
+$7,235
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
Awaiting data
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#3
Awaiting data
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#4
Awaiting data
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#5
Awaiting data
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