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News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?" Event volume totals $1M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "December 31" at 13.0% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in September?" Highest implied odds are for "25 bps increase" at 60.0%, with top volume on "25 bps decrease" at 1.8% and $796K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Where will Tyreek Hill play in 2026? - Chicago Bears
$0
Highest implied
Clacton by-election Winner - Nigel Farage
97.9%
Top priced
Clacton by-election Winner - Nigel Farage
97.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? - December 31, 2026 leads the desk at 61.0% with $834K traded.
Lead stories
Hamas ties disarming to Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
Hamas ties disarming to Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Trump Hamas disarmament plan sparks fresh questions in Jerusalem. Trump is hailing it as a breakthrough , but will Hamas actually disarm in Gaza ? - 01 - Aug - 2026.
Sources: perthnow.com.au, moneycontrol.com, home.nzcity.co.nz
Ukraine Is Now Targeting Iranian Shipping in the Caspian Sea
Ukraine Is Now Targeting Iranian Shipping in the Caspian Sea. Why limited war with the US may suit Iran better than peace. Trump says Iran being decimated , vows US strikes will continue.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps decrease leads the desk at 1.8% with $796K traded.
Lead stories
Fed policymakers leave rates unchanged amid elevated uncertainty
Fed policymakers leave rates unchanged amid elevated uncertainty. Warsh considering reducing number of Fed meetings , NYT reports. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh mulls fewer interest - rate meetings : report.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fortune.com, nypost.com
US says Strait of Hormuz remains open
US says Strait of Hormuz remains open. US military rejects Iranian claim that Strait of Hormuz is closed. The Strait of Hormuz Quagmire - Worldpress . org.
B4
Lead market: Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - Anthropic leads the desk at 7.8% with $25K traded.
Lead stories
How AI Wealth Is Reshaping The Global Property Market
How AI Wealth Is Reshaping The Global Property Market. OpenAI Says July Annualized Revenue Topped All of Q2. How OpenAI lost its AI crown and the fight to win it back.
Sources: forbes.com, finance.yahoo.com, livemint.com
Anthropic says its Claude models escaped a testing environment and hacked three real companies
Anthropic says its Claude models escaped a testing environment and hacked three real companies. China Humanoid Patents Surge Fivefold in Key AI Category as FCC Bans New Imports. Bond market begins to question AI boom as Beignet sequel falls flat.
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 leads the desk at 1.9% with $31K traded.
Lead stories
Chicano Hollywood Film Festival Returns to Pomona with Packed 5 - Day Program
Chicano Hollywood Film Festival Returns to Pomona with Packed 5 - Day Program. Conversation with filmmaker Vincent Fremont about his time working with Andy Warhol. Davido to Start Acting Soon , Plans Movie Production.
Sources: manilatimes.net, wlrh.org, punchng.com
B6
Lead market: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 27.0% with $248K traded.
Lead stories
The CLARITY Act Is Moving Again in the Senate . Here What Passage Would Change for Coinbase and Robinhood .. SEBI gives regulatory clarity to IDBI Bank plan of selling unlisted shares to non - QIB buyers. Brian Armstrong Isnt Losing Sleep Over Crypto Act Not Passing Before August Recess : Here Why the Coinb.
Sources: fool.com, moneycontrol.com, benzinga.com
B7
Lead market: UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion - Arsenal leads the desk at 12.0% with $134K traded.
Lead stories
Georgina Rodriguez shows off her incredible curves in a black bikini
Georgina Rodriguez shows off her incredible curves in a black bikini. Georgina Rodríguez and Cristiano Ronaldo show off huge matching diamond rings on private jet as they are dogged by ru....
Sources: dailymail.com, dailymail.com
Barca Pays Tribute to AC Milan Icon Franco Baresi
Barca Pays Tribute to AC Milan Icon Franco Baresi. Manchester City want €75m for Rodri , Real Madrid eye €50m deal. Italy , AC Milan legend Franco Baresi passes away at 66.
Sources: ,
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.7% with $100K traded.
Lead stories
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
Montana Measles Cases Non - Existent This Summer
Montana Measles Cases Non - Existent This Summer. Montana Measles Cases Non - Existent This Summer. Montana Measles Cases Non - Existent This Summer.
Sources: kyssfm.com, 963theblaze.com, newstalkkgvo.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Sources: oilprice.com, the-star.co.ke, siasat.com
US says Strait of Hormuz remains open
US says Strait of Hormuz remains open. US military rejects Iranian claim that Strait of Hormuz is closed. The Strait of Hormuz Quagmire - Worldpress . org.
Sources: middleeasteye.net, middleeastmonitor.com, worldpress.org
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? - December 31, 2026 at 61.0% with $834K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? - December 31, 2026.
Lead event
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? - December 31, 2026
Trading at 61.0% with $834K in volume.
Event leaders
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 61.0% | $834K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 24.0% | $717K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Top volume & odds: August 31 | 7.0% | $439K
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?) | 1.4% | $239K
Popular events
Vol $439K
12.9%
+0.2pp
$14M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $682M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $675M0%
Sources: middleeasteye.net, middleeastmonitor.com, worldpress.org
Breitbart Business Digest : Wall Street Gasps as Kevin Warsh Fed Abdicates Its Market Throne
Breitbart Business Digest : Wall Street Gasps as Kevin Warsh Fed Abdicates Its Market Throne. A Divided Fed Holds Rates Steady , Raises Doubts About Inflation Fight. The Fed Has Held Interest Rates at 3 . 50 %- 3 . 75 % for 5 Straight Meetings Under Kevin Warsh , a Signal That Borro....
Sources: breitbart.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps decrease at 1.8% with $796K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps decrease.
Event leaders
Top volume: 25 bps decrease | 1.8% | $796K
Top odds: 25 bps increase | 60.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 50.0% | $60K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 67.0% | $53K
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 (0 bps) | 88.9% | $30K
Popular events
Sources: fortune.com, techtimes.com, ifre.com
A few VC firms are poised to win the future
A few VC firms are poised to win the future. Anthropic Claude AI models hack into 3 outside groups during testing – The Irish Times.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, irishtimes.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - Anthropic at 7.8% with $25K traded.
Top volume remains in Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - Anthropic.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 20.0% | $2K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$5.0T | 4.2% | $2K
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 86.0%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 20.4% | $558
Popular events
The Odyssey has officially made box office history for director Christopher Nolan. Spider - Man 4 Box Office Is Already Beating No Way Home & Avengers : Endgame in Key Way. Kiara Advani highest - grossing movies : From War 2 to Kabir Singh , the box office blockbusters that defined Toxic a....
Sources: winteriscoming.net, comingsoon.net, moneycontrol.com
In Spider - Man : Brand New Day , a web slinging superhero grows up
In Spider - Man : Brand New Day , a web slinging superhero grows up. Spider - Man : Brand New Day Breaks All - Time Box Office Record Set by Avengers : Endgame in 1 Day. Movie review : NZ - filmed kid fantasy I , Object falls flat on its face.
Sources: reason.com, movieweb.com, nzherald.co.nz
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 at 1.9% with $31K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30
Trading at 1.9% with $31K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: September 30 | 1.9% | $31K
Top odds: December 31 | 6.0%
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 12.0% | $24K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 85.0%
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 61.0% | $16K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.0% | $10K
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume: 1 | 46.0% | $6K
Top odds: 2 | 51.0%
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Friday , July 31 , 2026 : Crypto prices back off this morning. Bitcoin And Ethereum Edge Higher As Traders Watch Altcoin Rotation. Crypto Market Today , July 31 : Bitcoin Slides Below $63 , 000 and Coinbase Tumbles 10 %.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, newsbtc.com, fool.com
Strategy CEO Phong Le Reveals Biggest Lesson the Bitcoin Treasury Company Learned in 2026 : The Importa. FinancialContent - Why Strategy ( MSTR ) Stock Is Falling Today. Strategy reports wider - than - expected Q2 loss amid Bitcoin volatility.
Sources: benzinga.com, markets.financialcontent.com, proactiveinvestors.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes at 27.0% with $248K traded.
Top volume remains in Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 27.0% | $248K
What price will Ethereum hit in July?
Top volume & odds: ↑ 2,000 | 1.8% | $200K
Popular events
Rich Eisen shares genius idea for 2026 - 27 NBA season opener
Rich Eisen shares genius idea for 2026 - 27 NBA season opener. LeBron Jame 76ers Jersey Is Already Breaking Sales Record. 10 NBA Records LeBron James Can Break with the 76ers.
Sources: thebiglead.com, blackamericaweb.com, eurweb.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion - Arsenal at 12.0% with $134K traded.
Top volume remains in UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion - Arsenal.
Event leaders
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Top volume: Arsenal | 12.0% | $134K
Top odds: Paris Saint-Germain | 15.0%
Top volume & odds: Harry Kane | 53.6% | $126K
Top volume: San Antonio Spurs | 21.0% | $117K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 22.0%
Top volume & odds: Kimi Antonelli | 74.4% | $27K
Popular events
UHERO study reveals progress , persistent challenges for Maui wildfire survivors.
Sources: hawaiinewsnow.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.7% with $100K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.7% | $100K
Popular events
+$1,812
+$1,227
+$318
Kalshi via Jupiter
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