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News Meets Markets
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Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" Event volume totals $52M across outcomes, with $2M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?)" at 21.0% and $2M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in September?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "25 bps increase" at 60.0% and $389K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k
$0
Highest implied
Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner - Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
98.1%
Top priced
Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner - Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
98.1%
Volume leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 21.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
We will kill you . Iran defiant as Trump moves to smack them .
We will kill you . Iran defiant as Trump moves to smack them .. Extensive response plan : Iran threatens US energy sites after Trump hit very hard warning. Trump considering attacks on Iran energy infrastructure , report says.
Sources: yahoo.com, moneycontrol.com, livemint.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps increase leads the desk at 60.0% with $389K traded.
Lead stories
Dollar Posts Worst Monthly Loss Since April as Fed Uncertainty and Yen Intervention Shake FX Markets
Dollar Posts Worst Monthly Loss Since April as Fed Uncertainty and Yen Intervention Shake FX Markets. Is the Fed Becoming an Even Bigger Black Box ? Warsh Wants to Reduce Number of Meetings. Gold Ends July Higher as Weaker Dollar Offsets Fed Inflation Concerns.
Sources: econotimes.com, finance.yahoo.com, econotimes.com
B4
Lead market: Which companies will be acquired before 2027? - OpenAI leads the desk at 4.0% with $5K traded.
Lead stories
As AI hits software sector , defense - tech flourishes
As AI hits software sector , defense - tech flourishes. As AI hits software sector , defense - tech flourishes.
SpaceX Is Down 19 % From Its IPO Price . Tesla History Suggests This May Happen Next
SpaceX Is Down 19 % From Its IPO Price . Tesla History Suggests This May Happen Next. SpaceX ( NASDAQ : SPCX ) Drops 19 % Below IPO Price As Analysts Draw Tesla Parallels. Moonshot AI Valuation Hits $35B After Kimi K3 in 2026.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ,
B5
Lead market: Highest grossing movie in 2026? - Avengers: Doomsday leads the desk at 8.0% with $98K traded.
Lead stories
Toy Story 5 North America Box Office : Inches Away From Surpassing The Lowest - Grossing Avengers Movie Ever. The Odyssey Box Office Breaks Christopher Nolan The Dark Knight Record In Week 3. What considered summer blockbuster in year of Obsession ?.
Sources: koimoi.com, screenrant.com, columbian.com
B6
Lead market: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 34.0% with $262K traded.
Lead stories
Anthony Scaramucci : dont let politics cost America the digital economy
Anthony Scaramucci : dont let politics cost America the digital economy. MicroStrategy Post - Earnings CLARITY Act Push Could Add New Catalyst for Its Stock. JPMorgan Predicted Up to $8 Billion of Year - One XRP ETF Inflows . Here Why Inflows Are Stuck at $1 . 5 Billion.
Sources: fortune.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
B7
Lead market: NBA: 2027 Champion - Los Angeles Lakers leads the desk at 2.1% with $214K traded.
Lead stories
James out to show he the best ever | The Arkansas Democrat - Gazette
James out to show he the best ever | The Arkansas Democrat - Gazette. Where do Orlando Magic fit in crowded Eastern Conference ?. WWE SummerSlam 2026 ( Sunday ): Start Time , Match Card , How To Watch & Live Stream.
Sources: arkansasonline.com, orlandosentinel.com, si.com
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.7% with $106K traded.
Lead stories
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
Cause for hope in the face of climate change
Cause for hope in the face of climate change. Climate change is being ignored at our peril. Finland Sand Battery Cuts Emissions 70 % Without a Single Rare Earth.
Sources: pressherald.com, windsorstar.com, oilprice.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
$185
Trump Hamas disarmament plan sparks fresh questions in Jerusalem. Hamas disarmament cannot be left for later | The Jerusalem Post. Trump declares new Gaza deal breakthrough | The Arkansas Democrat - Gazette.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, jpost.com, arkansasonline.com
Live updates : US plans fresh strikes on Iran as soon as this weekend , officials say
Live updates : US plans fresh strikes on Iran as soon as this weekend , officials say. Tanker carrying Qatari LNG struck while transiting Strait of Hormuz. War On Iran : – U . S . ( Again ) Blocks Strait Traffic – Moon of Alabama.
Sources: edition.cnn.com, moneycontrol.com, moonofalabama.org
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes at 21.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 21.0% | $2M
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 66.0% | $784K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Top volume & odds: August 31 | 11.0% | $569K
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?) | 1.3% | $358K
Popular events
14.0%
+0.5pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $683M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $676M0%
Live updates : US plans fresh strikes on Iran as soon as this weekend , officials say. Tanker carrying Qatari LNG struck while transiting Strait of Hormuz. War On Iran : – U . S . ( Again ) Blocks Strait Traffic – Moon of Alabama.
Sources: edition.cnn.com, moneycontrol.com, moonofalabama.org
ADNOC Buys Five Supertankers as Hormuz Crisis Tightens Shipping
ADNOC Buys Five Supertankers as Hormuz Crisis Tightens Shipping. CPC to leave domestic gasoline , diesel prices unchanged next week. Indian Oil rules out shift from Gulf crude despite regional conflict.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, focustaiwan.tw, economictimes.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps increase at 60.0% with $389K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps increase.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: 25 bps increase | 60.0% | $389K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 57.0% | $198K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 68.0% | $68K
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 (0 bps) | 88.4% | $49K
Popular events
3 organizations hacked as Anthropic tests AI | The Arkansas Democrat - Gazette
3 organizations hacked as Anthropic tests AI | The Arkansas Democrat - Gazette. Anthropic says its AI models hacked 3 organizations during testing - WSVN 7News | Miami News , Weather , Sports. Anthropic Claims Claude AI Models Hacked 3 Organizations During Security Testing.
Sources: arkansasonline.com, wsvn.com, breitbart.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which companies will be acquired before 2027? - OpenAI at 4.0% with $5K traded.
Top volume remains in Which companies will be acquired before 2027? - OpenAI.
Event leaders
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: OpenAI | 4.0% | $5K
Top odds: PayPal | 43.0%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 18.0% | $4K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$2.5T | 23.0% | $3K
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 89.0%
Popular events
Mason Thames Reacts To Having Movies Called Nimrods And Idiots Coming Out This Month. Spider - Man : Brand New Day Sets Rotten Tomatoes Franchise Record. The ( Understandable ) Conditions Lindsay Lohan Has Before Joining A Parent Trap Sequel.
Sources: cinemablend.com, movieweb.com, cinemablend.com
Film produced by Wright State grad is a high - earner in theaters
Film produced by Wright State grad is a high - earner in theaters. Out of school tiffin ideas for your child ? Chef Sanjeev Kapoor Soya Keema Frankie recipe is perfect for busy mornings. Leftover veggies going to waste in the fridge ? Try this nutritionist - approved high - protein paneer and capsicum k....
Sources: daytondailynews.com, hindustantimes.com, hindustantimes.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Highest grossing movie in 2026? - Avengers: Doomsday at 8.0% with $98K traded.
Top volume remains in Highest grossing movie in 2026? - Avengers: Doomsday.
Event leaders
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 8.0% | $98K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 90.0%
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 60.0% | $40K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 6.0% | $22K
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume: 6 or lower | 1.1% | $14K
Top odds: 1 | 50.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.0% | $13K
Strategy lost $8 . 22 billion in Q2 , but stock rose 4 . 4 % anyway , here is why market is not worried. Weekly Wrap : Crypto Stays Rangebound Amid Market Volatility. Michael Saylor Has Paused Strategy Regular Bitcoin Buys . What Does That Mean for MSTR Stock ?.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, fool.com
History Says That Bitcoin Is an Unbelievable Bargain Right Now
History Says That Bitcoin Is an Unbelievable Bargain Right Now. Bitcoin vs . XRP : Which Is the Better Long - Term Buy ?. Why Strategy ( MSTR ) Stock Is Falling Today.
Sources: fool.com, fool.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes at 34.0% with $262K traded.
Top volume remains in Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 34.0% | $262K
What price will Bitcoin hit July 27-August 2?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 62,000 | 14.0% | $43K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 5.7% | $33K
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume & odds: $50M | 86.9% | $25K
Popular events
2026 Ballon dOr : 4 former winners that will lose out on award this year. Inter Miami vs Columbus : Will Lionel Messi make his comeback tonight ? Coach breaks silence. Vinicius Jr . Waist Beads , Lamine Yamal Mercedes Gift , Mudryk Return and Messi GOAT Debate Dominate Football Buzz.
Sources: dailypost.ng, economictimes.indiatimes.com, tell.ng
Barcelona Negotiates First Team Transfer With Saudi Club
Barcelona Negotiates First Team Transfer With Saudi Club. Every word Mikel Arteta said on Vinicius Jr saga , Arsenal transfers and Max Dowman. Bayern Munich rival Liverpool in Bradley Barcola race.
Sources: forbes.com, aol.co.uk, thehardtackle.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by NBA: 2027 Champion - Los Angeles Lakers at 2.1% with $214K traded.
Top volume remains in NBA: 2027 Champion - Los Angeles Lakers.
Event leaders
Top volume: Los Angeles Lakers | 2.1% | $214K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 22.0%
Top volume & odds: Harry Kane | 53.6% | $163K
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Top volume: Arsenal | 13.0% | $144K
Top odds: Paris Saint-Germain | 15.0%
Popular events
Assam Floods : Randeep Hooda Participates In Flood Relief Distribution Programme In Assam Sivasagar
Assam Floods : Randeep Hooda Participates In Flood Relief Distribution Programme In Assam Sivasagar.
Sources: outlookindia.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.7% with $106K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.7% | $106K
Popular events
+$3,729
+$1,369
+$1,227
Kalshi via Jupiter
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