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News Meets Markets
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Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $20M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 8.2% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?)" at 37.0% and $5M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Top priced
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 22 leads the desk at 32.0% with $4M traded.
Lead stories
US Canada Pulse : Bessent Sanctions , Senate Vote , Jobs Rio Times
US Canada Pulse : Bessent Sanctions , Senate Vote , Jobs Rio Times. House rejects War Powers resolution aimed at limiting Trump authority to continue operations against Iran – One Ameri.... Rahul Gandhi absence from the campaign in Tamil Nadu raises eyebrows - The Week.
Sources: riotimesonline.com, oann.com, theweek.in
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes leads the desk at 37.0% with $5M traded.
Lead stories
Unacceptable : India on attacks on ships in Strait of Hormuz
Unacceptable : India on attacks on ships in Strait of Hormuz. Strait Of Hormuz Opens Officially During Israel - Lebanon Ceasefire But Iran Imposes Strict Route Conditions For Vessels. Donald Trump confirms Strait of Hormuz open following Israel - Lebanon ceasefire.
Sources: rediff.com, newsx.com, jpost.com
New Trump pick credibility problem made worse by his dangerou plan : analyst
New Trump pick credibility problem made worse by his dangerou plan : analyst. Trump issues ultimatum to Fed chair as Bitcoin trembles at $75 , 000 . Ill have to fire him. Here how Wall Street is betting Trump battle over the Fed will pan out.
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of April? - Anthropic leads the desk at 94.0% with $133K traded.
Lead stories
Snapchat parent company cuts 1 , 000 jobs in major AI - driven workforce restructuring
Snapchat parent company cuts 1 , 000 jobs in major AI - driven workforce restructuring. Musk Latest Announcement : SpaceX , Grok and What It Means for Investors.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Nvidia rival Cerebras reveals US IPO filing as AI boom drives listings
Nvidia rival Cerebras reveals US IPO filing as AI boom drives listings. Nvidia rival Cerebras discloses US IPO filing as AI boom drives listings. AI Startups Capture $242B As Global Funding Hits $300B In Q1 2026.
Sources:
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 19.0% with $448K traded.
Lead stories
Wild Card with Rachel Martin LIVE
Wild Card with Rachel Martin LIVE. Natalie Portman and Benjamin Millepied Relationship and Breakup Timeline. Iyabo Ojo Return of Arinzo maintains top spot at box office – P . M . News.
Sources: laist.com, cosmopolitan.com, pmnewsnigeria.com
Jesus of Washington and sinners of the world , By Owei Lakemfa
Jesus of Washington and sinners of the world , By Owei Lakemfa. Joe Scarborough Says Trump Admin Blaspheme Jesus Daily. Morning Joe Slams Hegseth Obsession With Religious Rhetoric.
B6
Lead market: MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$1B leads the desk at 64.0% with $159K traded.
Lead stories
Ramp Network Launches Multichain Wallet to Cut Third - Party Handoffs
Ramp Network Launches Multichain Wallet to Cut Third - Party Handoffs.
Sources: cointelegraph.com
Bitcoin and ethereum price today , Thursday , April 16 , 2026 : Prices hold amid profit - taking and cautious outlook. Record Stocks Highs And Cooling Volatility Spark $88K Bitcoin Price Target. Bitcoin Liquidates $660M In Shorts As BTC Price Rallied Past $78K.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com,
B7
Lead market: Warriors leads the desk at 23.0% with $4M traded.
Lead stories
Warriors vs . Suns Predictions , Odds & Stats – April 17
Warriors vs . Suns Predictions , Odds & Stats – April 17. Warriors vs . Suns Predictions , Odds & Stats – April 17. FanDuel Promo Code : Unlock $250 Bonus Bets for Warriors vs . Suns.
Sources: foxsports1450.iheart.com, foxsportsabq.iheart.com, covers.com
Carlo Ancelotti snubs Arsenal in naming his pick to win the Champions League
Carlo Ancelotti snubs Arsenal in naming his pick to win the Champions League. Real Madrid have Klopp and Pochettino on their manager shortlist. After Cristiano Ronaldo , Lionel Messi enters club ownership with UE Cornellà deal . Read details.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k leads the desk at 32.0% with $3K traded.
Lead stories
EU cuts greenhouse gas emissions by 40 % but transport remains a weak spot
EU cuts greenhouse gas emissions by 40 % but transport remains a weak spot. China Plans To Double Renewable Energy By 2035 . That The Good News .. China unveils world first panoramic carbon emission accounting system.
Sources: eandt.theiet.org, cleantechnica.com, en.people.cn
Japan greenhouse gas emissions fall below 1 billion tonnes for first time | News | Eco - Business
Japan greenhouse gas emissions fall below 1 billion tonnes for first time | News | Eco - Business. Blunt instruments of ( climate ) change. Henkel Sets Sustainability Targets For 2030 - Canadian Plastics.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.7%
$517K
No ceasefire for Iran Kurdish opposition parties in exile. Strikes Kill 3 Iranian Kurds in Northern Iraq , Says Opposition Group. Indian refiners pay for Iran oil in yuan via ICICI Bank , sources say.
No SAVE Act ? Congress Still Holds The Trump Card
No SAVE Act ? Congress Still Holds The Trump Card. Wike : Amaechi , David Mark cant deliver Rivers , Benue to ADC in 2027. Luna to CBS : Allegation About to Break About Eric the Pred Wingman , Too.
Sources: zerohedge.com, thecable.ng, hotair.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 22 at 32.0% with $4M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 22.
Event leaders
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Top volume: May 31 | 30.0% | $2M
Top odds: December 31 | 46.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 25.0% | $2M
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Jon Stewart | 2.3% | $1M
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 27.9%
Popular events
7.1%
-0.5pp
$11M
+10%
Republican nominee
Event volume $564M+1%
Presidential election
Event volume $537M+2%
Sources: rawstory.com, finance.yahoo.com, nypost.com
Persian Gulf oil recovery will take months once war ends , Strait of Hormuz opens ( USO : NYSEARCA )
Persian Gulf oil recovery will take months once war ends , Strait of Hormuz opens ( USO : NYSEARCA ). Relief for Global Energy Markets as Oil crashes 10 % to $84 after Hormuz reopens. Global crude oil prices slip up to 2 pc as West Asia tensions ease.
Sources: seekingalpha.com, en.dailypakistan.com.pk, ibtimes.co.in
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes at 37.0% with $5M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes
Trading at 37.0% with $5M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 37.0% | $5M
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 1.3% | $551K
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 94.7%
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $140 | 2.3% | $356K
Top odds: ↓ $75 | 39.0%
Elon Musk Drops Design for AI5 Chip , Gives Shoutout to Samsung
Elon Musk Drops Design for AI5 Chip , Gives Shoutout to Samsung. SpaceX Dominating Tesla Cybertruck Sales. Elon Musk : Government Checks Are Best Way to Deal With AI Job Losses.
Sources: gamerevolution.com, cleantechnica.com, businessinsider.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of April? - Anthropic at 94.0% with $133K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of April? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of April? - Anthropic
Trading at 94.0% with $133K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 94.0% | $133K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?) | 1.1% | $48K
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $SEX | 1.5% | $12K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 60.7%
Popular events
Sources: premiumtimesng.com, mediaite.com, thewrap.com
New LeBron James Rumors Reveal Real Possibility About NBA Future amid Retirement , Lakers Buzz
New LeBron James Rumors Reveal Real Possibility About NBA Future amid Retirement , Lakers Buzz. NBA All - Star issues upset alert for Nuggets - Timberwolves series. NBA awards : Bontemp ballot for MVP , top rookie , every honor.
Sources: bleacherreport.com, yardbarker.com, thegamenashville.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 19.0% with $448K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 19.0% with $448K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 19.0% | $448K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $205K
Popular events
What Blue Origin selection means for a proposed new launch site at Vandenberg
What Blue Origin selection means for a proposed new launch site at Vandenberg. Vandenberg Next Mission : SpaceX Rocket Launch on Saturday Morning | Local News. NASA charts course for nuclear future with ambitious Mars mission – NaturalNews . com.
Sources: ksby.com, noozhawk.com, naturalnews.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$1B at 64.0% with $159K traded.
Top volume remains in MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$1B.
Lead event
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$1B
Trading at 64.0% with $159K in volume.
Event leaders
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume: >$1B | 64.0% | $159K
Top odds: >$600M | 93.0%
Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 4.8% | $80K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 40.0%
Popular events
Sources: metro.co.uk, caughtoffside.com, gqindia.com
Formula 1 : George Russell would understand if Max Verstappen leaves the sport
Formula 1 : George Russell would understand if Max Verstappen leaves the sport. Susan Calman Grand Day Out. Russell Would Understand if Verstappen Left F1.
Sources: bbc.com, tvguide.co.uk, autoweek.com
Event leaders
Top volume: Atletico Madrid | 12.0% | $2M
Top odds: Bayern Munich | 34.0%
Top volume & odds: Kylian Mbappe | 67.0% | $4K
Popular events
Sources: eco-business.com, odt.co.nz, canplastics.com
Bendix powers up solar array - Truck News
Bendix powers up solar array - Truck News. Michigan Updates Air Quality Risk System Ahead of Wildfire Season. Typhoon Sinlaku latest : Coast Guard searching Pacific Ocean for 6 people after losing contact with boat.
Sources: trucknews.com, insurancejournal.com, fox5atlanta.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k at 32.0% with $3K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$13,468
+$10,741
+$7,235
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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